Dow, oh man... sieht uebel aus !

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19.11.03 11:27

9439 Postings, 7353 Tage Zick-ZockDow, oh man... sieht uebel aus !

Updated 11/18 for Wednesday's market.
Key DOW Levels for 11/19
UPAbove 9,750
DNBelow 9,600

Trend Line Break

Dow forms lower high and trends lower, breaks major lower trend line.

From prior commentary, "...The Dow trended lower the entire session, but held at key lower trend lines, which pushed the index higher to the Close. An upside break through 9,750 will further extend the upmove, while a break of 9,625 will indicate an even greater decline..."

The Dow moved higher at the Open this morning, but turned down precisely off the 9,750 level and trended slowly lower the remainder of the session, as seen in the 15 and 60 Minute Charts. The index actually accelerated to the downside late in the day and broke the major lower trend line at 9,625, best seen in the Daily Chart.

The fact that the Dow has broken the major lower trend line, which has remained in tact for over eight months, implies weakness. A downside break through 9,600 could extend today's downmove and spark and even sharper sell-off in the medium term. The lower high that formed beneath the 9,750, seen in the 60 Minute Chart, adds fuel to this theory.

Further weakness is very likely in the near term, especially if the index holds beneath 9,750 over the next session. Strength will not be seen unless this level can be crossed.

Short Term Dow

Short term, the Dow formed a lower high beneath the 9,660 level, seen in the 5 Minute Chart, which implies further weakness at the Open. Lower highs are continuation patterns, therefore, we should see continued downside movement unless 9,660 is broken to the upside.

Medium Term Dow

In the medium term, we are still out of the market, as the 30 Minute Rule kept us from entering Short late in the session. We will look to enter Short below 9,600, and Long above 9,750, wit 20 point stops.


The NASDAQ and S&P 'popped and dropped' today, sparking a day-long downtrend. Clear lower trend lines have been broken, which imply a likely follow-through to the downside in the near term. *


The Dow reversed down off the 9,750 this morning, forming a lower high, which will likely make for further weakness in the medium term. Should the index break and hold below 9,600, look for the index to endure a sharp decline due to break of the major lower trend line.

Thanks for listening, and Good luck in your trading..

Ed Downs

with assistance from..
Frank Ochoa, Market Analyst

** Note: We are now posting Index entries and exits in Real Time, through our new Intraday Index Alerts service. To learn more about the service, visit and select Intraday Alerts from the main navigation bar. - SW Team


Rules and Definitions

Dow 15 Minute Chart

Dow 60 Minute Chart

Dow Daily Chart

Dow Weekly Chart



19.11.03 11:33

25951 Postings, 7391 Tage Pichelund in deinen Worten?

da du gestern so gut lagst!!

Gruß Pichel  

19.11.03 11:37

19522 Postings, 7546 Tage gurkenfredgibts da bad news? bin grad

aus dem urlaub zurück und hab NIX mitbekommen.  

19.11.03 11:40

9439 Postings, 7353 Tage Zick-Zockwenn das so einfach waere, pichel...

klecks glaubt an einen reversal um montag rum.

ich denke wir machen ca. 9580 bei eroeffnung / bis mittag, um bei 9650 zu schliessen!

mein tipp...

und du?



19.11.03 11:52

19522 Postings, 7546 Tage gurkenfredau mann, wer lesen kann, ist klar im

hab gedacht es ging um dow chemical...ächz. wird zeit für den ruhestand :-))


19.11.03 12:02

25951 Postings, 7391 Tage Pichelunentschlossen im mom

halte mich, (außer Nikkei Put laufenlassen) auch aus dem markt...
denke heute beim dow am Anfang Richtung 9600-9580 um dann nach leichten Anfangsverlusten wieder zu stabilisieren (bis 9760 max.) (ich weiß zu hoch gegriffen)

Gruß Pichel  

19.11.03 12:04

9439 Postings, 7353 Tage Zick-Zockes wird m.m. nach noch immer abgeladen

im moment scheint wieder "zum schluss kaufen, zur eroeffnung abverkaufen" trend zu sein.

war die letztentage mehrfach zu beobachten... m.m. nach trend noch nicht komplett hin.


19.11.03 12:08

9439 Postings, 7353 Tage Zick-Zock@gurkenfred ;-)

wollte dich nicht erschrecken ! *g*

20.11.03 08:58

9439 Postings, 7353 Tage Zick-Zockpichel, du warst naeher dran!

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